Weekend Box Office Predictions
March 24 - March 26, 2023
Published on March 23, 2023 at 4:30PM Pacific |
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| In a month full of high-profile releases, Lionsgate's John Wick: Chapter 4 is expected to be the highest grossing film of the bunch. The fourth installment of the popular action thriller franchise sees the return of
director Chad Stahelski and star Keanu Reeves. The film's supporting cast includes Donnie Yen, Bill Skarsgård, Laurence Fishburne, Hiroyuki Sanada, Shamier Anderson, Rina Sawayama, Ian McShane and the late Lance Reddick. John Wick: Chapter 4 will be
playing in 3,855 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. The John Wick franchise has always gone over well with critics and that trend has clearly continued with
John Wick: Chapter 4, as the film currently boasts the highest Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score ever for the franchise (at an impressive 95% as of publishing). The strong critical reviews for John Wick: Chapter 4 should
only further increase the already high anticipation level for the film. |
| Back in May of 2019, John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum broke out with a debut of $56.82 million (which represented an 86.7 percent increase over the $30.44 million start of 2017's John Wick: Chapter 2), before going
on to finish its domestic run with $171.02 million. The consensus feeling is that John Wick: Chapter 4 will deliver another significant opening weekend increase for the franchise, with a bit of the increase perhaps due to the potential for
more front-loading this time around. While it likely won't have a major impact, the film's 169 minute run-time could limit John Wick: Chapter 4 from having an even larger break-out performance than the film is likely to have this weekend. BoxOfficeReport
is predicting that John Wick: Chapter 4 will debut with $78.5 million this weekend. That would give John Wick: Chapter 4 a very strong per-location average of $20,363 for the frame and would represent a 38.2 percent increase over the debut of
John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum. |
| Warner Bros. and New Line's Shazam! Fury of the Gods is coming off of a first place debut of $30.11 million, which was towards the lower end of already scaled back consensus expectations. Back in April of
2019, Shazam! declined 54.3 percent to gross $24.45 million in its second weekend. But with poorer critical reviews, weaker word of mouth and much stronger new competition in its second weekend in the form of
John Wick: Chapter 4 (which will also be taking IMAX screens from Shazam! Fury of the Gods), Shazam! Fury of the Gods is highly likely to experience a sharper second weekend percentage decline than Shazam! did.
Shazam! Fury of the Gods may also experience a sharper second weekend decline than the 59.0 percent Black Adam declined to gross $27.47 million in its second weekend this past October. One factor that could give some slight help to
Shazam! Fury of the Gods this weekend is the continued lack of new options for family audiences. A sharp decrease of 62.8 percent would transfer into a distant second place take of $11.2 million for Shazam! Fury of the Gods this weekend. |
| Last weekend saw Paramount's Scream VI decline a sharp 61.0 percent to take second place with $17.33 million and MGM's Creed III decrease a very respectable 43.6 percent to follow fairly closely behind in third with $15.38 million. The two
successful sequels are likely to remain close to one another in this weekend's rankings, though Creed III could have the edge between the two films this time around. And while both films should continue to stabilize this weekend, the degree of that
stabilization will obviously be limited by the added presence of John Wick: Chapter 4 in the marketplace. Look for Creed III to decrease a solid 41.5 percent to take third place with $9.0 million and for Scream VI to decline a
sizable, but reasonable, 51.0 percent to follow in fourth with $8.5 million. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Sony's 65 could decrease a respectable 45.3 percent to place in fifth with $3.2 million, Disney's Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania could drop a solid
38.4 percent to follow in sixth place with $2.6 million, Lionsgate's Jesus Revolution could decline just 34.0 percent to take seventh with $2.3 million, while Universal's Cocaine Bear could take a larger direct hit from
John Wick: Chapter 4 to slow 44.4 percent for an eighth place gross of $2.2 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | John Wick: Chapter 4 (Lionsgate) |
$78.5 M | $78.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Shazam! Fury of the Gods (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$11.2 M | $48.0 M | -63% | 2 |
| 3 | Creed III (MGM) |
$9.0 M | $141.5 M | -41% | 4 |
| 4 | Scream VI (Paramount) |
$8.5 M | $90.0 M | -51% | 3 |
| 5 | 65 (Sony / Columbia) |
$3.2 M | $27.8 M | -45% | 3 |
| 6 | Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania (Disney) |
$2.6 M | $210.0 M | -38% | 6 |
| 7 | Jesus Revolution (Lionsgate) |
$2.3 M | $49.3 M | -34% | 5 |
| 8 | Cocaine Bear (Universal) |
$2.2 M | $62.3 M | -44% | 5 |
| 9 | Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century) |
$1.65 M | $680.7 M | -21% | 15 |
| 10 | Champions (Focus) |
$1.35 M | $13.4 M | -57% | 3 |
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